Should MPs have the power to predict the future?
Should MPs have the power to predict the future? This Sunday on Politics South West, a Conservative MP boasted about the compensation package being offered to those affected by the ban on fishing for pollack.
When I pointed out that she was “closing the stable door after the horse had bolted”, and that the ban could have been prevented if she had done her job properly in the first place, she protested “I’m not a mind reader!”
But correctly predicting the consequences of decisions is exactly what MPs should be able to do. Not through some supernatural power, but simply by paying attention and asking the right questions to the right people at the right time.
People who lack the wisdom to distinguish between good and bad information, or the curiosity to find things out for themselves, will inevitably end up being caught out when things don’t turn out the way they expected. So why do such people end up running the country?! Sadly our two biggest political parties have discovered that many voters are desperate for certainty, and will put their trust in politicians who make bold predictions: Boris Johnson said that Brexit would be quick and easy, and that life would get better for those who were struggling (especially fishers and farmers). Gordon Brown predicted that deregulating the banks would boost the economy. Tony Blair predicted that toppling Saddam Hussein would turn Iraq into a “beacon of hope” which would help spread democracy across the Middle East.
But Mark Twain famously said “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble, it’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” All of the political predictions above turned out to be catastrophically wrong, as did Liz Truss’ prediction that unfunded tax cuts would lead to sustained economic growth. Labour and Conservative Prime Ministers ignored Liberal Democrat warnings, and people across the country and around the world are still paying the price for those mistakes.
Some outcomes are easier to predict: Cutting funding for highway drainage caused a proliferation of potholes; inadequate funding for social care hurt the NHS; and giving tax breaks to Airbnb owners caused a housing crisis in Cornwall.
Meanwhile aspiring Conservative lawmakers know that if they donate over £3 million to the party they will get a seat in the House of Lords. And aspiring Labour MPs know that if they work hard and toe the party line in “non-battleground” seats like South East Cornwall, they will get selected for a more “winnable” Labour seat elsewhere next time around.
The Liberal Democrats have a proven record of sound judgement. The UK cannot afford to make the wrong calls on fixing the NHS, tackling the Climate Emergency, or responding to the violence in Ukraine and the Middle East. That’s why, in an increasingly complex and dangerous world, more and more people are turning to the Liberal Democrats to build a fair, free, open and sustainable society.